Setting a Yield Goal

Setting a yield goal can be tricky. This year can make it even harder. With the USDA reporting record yields the other day, it leaves us scratching our heads. Do we set a goal for higher yields or do we try to match last years. Lucky for us in this part of the state I don't think we want to shoot for another year like last. Many of you have raised better corn in past years. The soybeans however were very good and it would be nice to match last year's yields. It comes down to how much yield increae should be expected each year. We all know that yield totals flucuate up and down like a wave. If we lay those waves out and draw a line through the averages then we can see an uptrend in yields. What is that average increase in yield on a yearly basis? I looked at past USDA yield graph for several years and the numbers are educational. In 1979 the USDA reported an average corn yield of 95 bushela per acre. This last week they reported, for easy figuring, somewhere around 165 bushels per acre. This is a 57.5% increase in yield in the last 30 years. At this pace in another 30 years the national average corn yield will be 287 bushels per acre.

The pace though is picking up. I also found that from 1965 to 1995, Iowa corn yields were increasing by 1.9 bushels per acre per year. That is a decent increase. Are there any guesses about the rate of increase in the next 10 years from 1996 to 2007? On the average in Iowa, corn yields have been increasing by 2.1 bushels per acre per year. Is there any significance of the time period of 1996 to 2007? Biotech was in it's infancy. Bt corn for corn borer was introduced in 1996. In my mind technology has helped increase yields. Other factors also must be taken into consideration with the most important being grower management.

Monsanto's goal of reaching 300 bushel yield average by the year 2030 is a huge undertaking. If it is to be realized, then yields must increase by 6 bushels per acre every year until then. I guess we will have to wait and see.

Anyway, back to setting a yield goal for next year. If you take the national average increase and add it to your average yield over the past 3 yrs it should give you a very attainable goal. The 2.1 average increase may be increase a 0.2 bushel. There are no set in stone rules. Make sure the goal is doable but not to low that it is easy to get to. Another way is to take the county yield average, compare it to what you see from your farm and add the increase you want to the largest.

I hope I have helped out a little. This is a system that there are not true answers to, but it is important you set goals. If you would like help with this I would be more than happy to lend a hand. Give me a call at 319-929-7851.

Don't forget the "Marketing Boot Camp" on February 10 and 11. I will sending out information probably next week.

Thanks and have a safe week.

Perri

319-929-7851

pdraisey@lewishybrids.com